Conflicts, Vulnerabilities and Retiring ANZUS

The question was asked in a previous diary, "Who is Australia fighting?" - a quick look at the historical record of Australian involvement in conflicts begs the question, "Who is Australia fighting for?". Since potential threats and instability changes faster than the ability to develop, procure and deploy high tech systems, defence departments define their needs based on the nation-states vulnerabilities rather than immediate threats.

A History of Australian Involvement In Conflicts

While a formal international policy started with Queensland raising militia to invade German New Guinea after Germany colonized (The Colonial Office in London slapped Queensland down concerned their actions may precipitate war in Europe) and the New South Wales contingent to Sudan in 1885. It was not until the Boer War that all the colonies acted in unison to send troops to support the British action in the Orange Free State and Transvaal. Since the post World War II landscape has included international deployment through the UN into global hot-spots, these have been included as well.

Australia has maintained overseas deployments of its forces during this period as well, such as the stationing of a brigade in Singapore in the 1950's and the deployment of infantry assets on the Irian Jira border. The Malta and BCOF should be counted as non-conflict deployments ( they are, neither are notched against the Au or UK) but show that Australia has a history of deploying forces overseas even when not in conflict.

Australian Involvement In UN Deployments

This site contains a list of UN missions Australian has contributed to. There have been a total of 56 deployments in 56 different countries between 1949 and 2004. This has involved approximately 46,000 personnel.

Who is Australia Fighting For?

Other than World War II when Australian security was directly threatened, all the other conflicts Australia has contributed to have been wars of choice for the Australian nation. So who has Australia been fighting for, the count is;

There were ten deaths on the UN missions, the only conflict Australia contributed to that was less deadly was the First Gulf War in which the Australian deployment consisted of Frigates not in direct fire.

Vulnerabilities

Threats change faster than high-tech weaponry is procured. For instance the F111 was order in 1968 two years after the Indonesian Konfrontasi when there was the genuine threat that Indonesia expansionism might extend past Irian Jira to New Guinea. Expansion ended with East Timor in 1975 and it is undoubted that the F111 fulfilled its self-prophecying role of deterrent in getting Indonesia to request for UN assistance in East Timor in 1999. Like all good deterrents, the F111 looks to be retired without being used in anger.

The change in where the threat comes from leads the defence policy makers not to look at existing threats but to determine existing vulnerabilities. From the Fundamentals of Australian Aerospace Power;

Vulnerability is an inherent weakness that could be exploited by an opponent. All nations are vulnerable in a range of matters and the combination of these factors will be unique for each country. The best concept for responding to such vulnerabilities is to determine how resilient they are to external interference.

The aerospace power manual defines seven areas of vulnerability;

In geography, Australia is rather isolated. The nearest potential threat is across an air-sea gap. With this large gap, any projection over Australia will necessarily take a great deal of time to put into position and organize. It is unlikely that there will be a surprise attack on Australia.

By the same token, this isolation has other problems for a trading nation like Australia. It can mean that Australia's Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) can be cut far from the Australian mainland. This is what Japan attempted to do by driving for New Caledonia in 1942, in an effort to cut off the Line of Communication and Logistical lines between Australia and the USA.

Consequently, to limit this vulnerability, a long range strike weapon is required that can ensure any attempts to mount a credible attack on Australia can be defeated far from Australian shores. The strike weapon must also be capable of defending any attempts to cut Australian trade lines.

The Asian and South Pacific Regions

The containment of the Soviet Union and its satellites during the Cold War has led to Europe democratizing almost in its entirety. Former Soviet Union satellites states such as Poland and the Czech Republic are now democracies with market economies. Several European countries either during or after the Cold War had non-violent revolutions that led to democracies being established.

The Asian region contains few democracies and the potential for instability and a consequent interruption to trade is high. Indonesia is an infant democracy after having rid themselves of the dictator Suharto in 1998. Indonesia has other issues, if it becomes instable politically it may balkanize. Already the Aceh province has been put down by the Indonesia government. Irian Jiri has had lawless issues as well.

Thailand rejuvenated its constitution in 1997, after having survived attempts at European colonisation, and a military coup in 1991. China despite its movement to a market economy remains a one-party state. South Korea was established as a Republic but had corruption issues in the 1990's. Taiwan was under martial law from 1949 until 1987 and didn't have its first legislative elections until 1992 and its first presidential elections until 1996. Myanmar is currently under the thralls of despotism, Vietnam remains a communist state with some investment and trade liberalisation. Cambodia is still recovering from Pol Pot.

Since many of these nations are maturing to democracy, a secure, stable and prosperous region is required. Unfortunately Australia has persisted with Cold War treaties and relationships, namely ANZUS and the Au-US alliance. This is despite the end of the Cold War, the changing face of security issues and the need to ensure the Asian region is prosperous.

While the solution to the Cold War was containment of the Soviet Bloc. The issues facing Asia require a different approach. In the Asia-Pacific trade routes need to be secure, especially the flow of trade from west to east and south to north. Inevitably the United States and Japan have a large role in this from a trade point of view and the capability to ensure trade routes aren't compromised.

There needs to be a locus around the Pacific, a new treaty that recognizes the need for stability, security and prosperity. A treaty that recognizes the issues from non-democratic aggressor nations such as North Korea. A treaty that recognizes the realities of terrorism and they predominantly civil response. Explicit language will be required to determine the appropriate civil and martial responses.

A treaty which recognizes that prosperity will come through stability. Security and stability will give the fledging Asian democracies the time to mature democracy to their social and cultural needs. This coupled with prosperity and a unified agreement that trade routes be kept open no matter what.

The treaty will require the major signatories of Australia, United States and Japan. This is a locus of established democracies around the Pacific. To become a major signatory will be the requirement to be a democracy, a market economy (trading nation) and an adherence to human rights. This should effectively junk ANZUS in Australian foreign policy. ANZUS should be retired as the Cold War document it is.

For Australia, a second treaty of similar scope should be developed. This time with India and South Africa, one that seeks to open the same security and stability for Central Asia and East Africa.

cam
Permalink, Conflicts, Vulnerabilities and Retiring ANZUS, Aug 2004, cam

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