China and the Financial Crisis

China, like the other Tiger Nations, is predominantly a mercantilist nation whose prosperity is heavily dependent on export growth to the United States and Europe; both of which have thrown in the consumer shopping towel and are dealing with righting their household balance sheets to minimise the effects of debt.

As Gary Sauer-Thompson notes this has left China with industrial over-capacity and no real state based policy to deal with it. The United States is not much better. It has a financial sector which is currently at over capacity and instead of allowing it to contract as capitalism and free markets would demand, instead taxpayer money and government policy has allowed the financial sector to remain larger than what the current economy requires.

Australia has required on the 'decoupling' thesis for its hopes of avoiding any slow down in growth. Barry Ritholtz writes;

Can China expand enough to make up for the contraction in US and European demand given that the two economies are more than six times the size of China? The answer to that last question is an emphatic no. The decoupling theory was that loss of the US consumer would not matter to the commodity producers like Canada and Australia or the manufacturers like China and Japan. How could any economist have thought that? Many did.

Unfortunately the US's consumption as built upon unsustainable cheap credit, which led to an over capacity of malls, which was were then filled with cheap trinkets and wares from China, Japan and other manufacturing nations. With the collapse of American consumption, so goes the factories of China as Chinese consumption and choice of goods is nothing like what Americans buy.

Until the US consumer gets on top of personal debt the global economy will not pick up pace again. The United States consumer remains the wealthiest on the planet and with the most fickle demands for what they want in life. China, Japan and the other mercantilist nations cannot change that fact - and at the moment the US consumer is tapped out of money on a national scale.
Permalink, China and the Financial Crisis, Jan 2009, cam

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