Making Sense Of The 2010 Australian National Election

So how to make sense of the recent elections. It looks like the swing against Labor, while higher than normal, isn't particularly high against a first time incumbent government.

It also appears that most voters chose the Greens rather than Coalition when deserting Labor as well giving the Greens their first seat in the House of Representatives and a strong showing in the Senate. I wonder how much not having to compete with the Australian Democrats account for that as well.

Additionally informal voting seems a little high. According to Wiki it is about 5% normally. Australia doesn't have compulsory voting, it has compulsory handing in a ballot. You can do to the ballot whatever you like. An empty ballot is valid, as is a partially filled out one. It is a form of protest voting.

There appears to be a lot of hand ringing by pundits willing to tell the world what this means. Additionally the drama of a minority government is right up their alley. They will be able to ascribe all manner of narratives and story to it. Mark Bahnisch writes:

The truth of this election is that both the Howard era cultural hegemony and Labor's state model of populist electoralism have failed their architects - majority politics has broken down.

Broken down enough that one of the major parties is going to have to do a deal with the independents as a block to get through their supply bills. Australian states with their innovative forms of preference and proportional voting have had to deal with coalition and minority governments before. It would not necessarily be a bad thing if the national government has to get used to this style of governance as well. Assuming Fielding isn't the independent of course.

More John Barrdear has a good run down and more links.
Permalink, Making Sense Of The 2010 Australian National Election, Aug 2010, cam
John Barrdear: Shameless plug: In addition to the entry you link to on my site, I've also got another (much longer) entry listing all the main events leading to Labor's abysmal showing.

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