The early retirement of the F111 and the procurement of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) to replace it, pose difficult questions for Australian Defence policy. What is not questioned, is that the replacement of the F111 with the JSF will involve a net loss in Australian projection capability and consequently, make Australia's lines of communication more vulnerable to outside coercion. Australia is faced with a politically difficult choice; either keep the F111 going or develop an indigenous strike platform to replace it.

Poll: What should Australia do?

The defence of Australia is defined by Australia's geographic vulnerabilities. Since Australia is a trading nation with multi-national defence links, these vulnerabilities are the sea lines of communication (SLOC) through the North-West shelf, the Timor Sea and the Coral Sea. This is the air-sea gap that has been the basis of Australian defence policy since World War II.

In today's Australian Defence Force (ADF) authority over this air-sea gap is maintained by the triple punch of the F111, the Collins Class attack submarines and the P3C Orion. Common to these three very effective platforms is their autonomy. While they do benefit from the force multipliers that the ADF is able to leverage, all three strike platforms are capable of completing missions independently.

The Collins class submarines are a relatively new addition to the Australian armoury but the F111 and Orion are nearing the end of their service life. The Liberal Government recently announced the projected retirement of the F111 in 2010. The government has already added funds to the development phase of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) leaving no doubt that it is the JSF that will replace the F111 and F18 in the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF).

Loss in Projection Capability With the JSF

The JSF is not expected to enter service with the RAAF until 2012 assuming there is no delays in the JSF development program. This will leave at the minimum a two year gap between the retirement of the F111 and when the JSF is deployed. There will be a drastic drop in Australian projection during this period. The government has tried to cover this by procuring cruise missiles but even this does not replace the power of the F111.

Even with the purchase of one hundred JSF aircraft, Australia will suffer a loss in projection. One aspect of the JSF procurement that has not been debated is that there will be a net loss in Australian project and hitting power with the JSF. The JSF is designed for a military force with an abundant support infrastructure. This includes force multipliers such as Air to Air Refuelling (AAR) assets and the fighters to escort them. Australia maintains a tiny force of AAR assets in the aging Boeing 707. This is a far cry from the operational environment the JSF was intended to operate in.

Modern weaponry takes a great deal of time to bring to operational level, it involves training, the knowledge to support it and the infrastructure to keep it operational. As a consequence platforms have an operational life of forty years or longer. Any inequity in the ADF structure, or error in procurement can have long term deleterious effects. Given the drop in strike power the procurement of the JSF will entail and the consequent difficulty in Australia being able to maintain military authority over the air-sea gap; it is impossible to view the JSF as anything but an error in procurement.

The Options For Australian Defence

There are very few options for Australia, basically no-one makes long range, autonomous strike platforms with large hitting power anymore. The US and UK industries are focused on global projection. For a nation such as Australian who is focused on regional defence, the world's armoury no longer contains anything like the F111. We are faced with a choice; keep the F111 going indefinitely, or develop and build our own weapon systems that solve our projection needs exactly .

In my opinion the F111 should be maintained until a strike platform that can replace the F111's autonomy, range and hitting power is available. Like all good deterrents the F111 has not been used in anger, and its value regionally as a known deterrent is almost self-prophesying.

Australia should also embark on a development program to develop, build and deploy an indigenous platform to replace the F111. Australian scientists and engineers are innovative and with the guaranteed long-term funding that would come from such a project, Australian industry would produce a world-class strike platform that matches Australian needs exactly.

Australia is also not alone in having an air-sea gap to defend. Other nations such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan also face similar defence issues. Japan has recently lifted its military technology export ban, and Taiwan has recent experience in designing and building military aircraft. With regional partners the development cost would be lessened, the regional co-operation at government and private industry level would be a major bonus plus it would give the ADF what it needs to keep Australia secure.

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