Howto: Getting Elected When In Opposition

The Westminster system is a stagnant form of electoral government with huge advantages to the incumbent. As Rodney Smith noted, electorates are bribed with massive handouts, swinging minority interest groups in competitive are also bribed, often with non-core promises. Other than the public purse, the mechanisms of government also get abused. Keating's Animals are one example, Howard's fabrication of the "children overboard" another.

About the only means of electoral change is through a "drover's dog" election coming along every ten years or so, when the incumbent government is perceived as corrupt, out of touch with the electorate and has exhausted any policy they originally ran on. So how does an opposition party win an election?

Ryebuck Politics

Since it seems in Federal, and in many State systems that a party only loses an election once it alienates the electorate through a perception of corruption, along with arrogance from power. But even this is not enough as the Hewson vs Keating showdown displayed. A Labor government with an arrogant leader managed to win the unlosable election.

Other than getting a Governor-General like John Kerr to kick out the elected government, the only other means to get into government is persuade the electorate your party is worthy, or to attack the issue from the opposite end, convince the electorate the the government is corrupt, exhausted, arrogant and out of touch.

Conservative parties have an easier time of getting in government as part of their rhetoric is about small government, and the Reaganite view that "government is not the answer, it is the problem". Conservative parties can attack government itself and by extension the party in power. Since Labor parties tend not to view big government as necessarily a bad thing, they tend to have trouble attacking government itself.

It is all rhetoric anyway, conservative parties expand government at the same or increasing rates than Labor parties. Social democracy as practised by both parties maximises government to the greatest tax burden that can be born. One aspect of modern politics is that you can pretty much say anything and the spinners will spin it for the news cycle so that it sticks or is forgotten. Election promises are also meaningless, neither party is held to them.

Pure as the Driven Snow

Continually paint the government as corrupt. Agitate for independent commissions such as the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC). Any attempt by the party in power to block innovations such as an independent commission is proof of their corruption. Establish numerous committees, all intended to peer into the process of the government for information to show the corruption inherent in the party in power. All governments are corrupt, just the extent differs.

Politic for a Bill of Rights and other legislation that places limits on government action. Since every party currently holding government seeks absolute power, they will attempt to stop the legislation, unless the public call for it is overriding. Again, anytime the government opposes or changes the argument, bring it back to corruption in government, and the claim that they are opposing out of fear for the corruption they have already partaken in.

This type of legislation should be popular with third parties as well. It also paints the opposition as altruistic and concerned about honesty in government.

Another aspect an electorate feels is when a government is out of touch. The Liberal Governments after Menzies' retirement suffered from this, as did the Paul Keating government. Again the party in opposition should start painting the government as out of touch, bent into legislative depravity by the power the electorate handed them in the previous election. Again this should be harped on, over and over, until it becomes true.

Conclusion

Once a party gets dumped into opposition, under the current system it just has to wait for somewhere between nine and twenty-four years. So what can an opposition party do to try and lessen that waiting period?

Since an opposition party has to wait for a "drover's dog" election anyway, which at the moment appears to be about nine and a half years, it can't hurt to try and artificially establish the premise for a drover's dog election ahead of time.

Who knows, it may work better than Beazley's small target policy, Latham's aggressive policy creation or the policy of whoever becomes the Liberal leader of the opposition when they get voted out.

cam
Permalink, Howto: Getting Elected When In Opposition, Jan 2005, cam
avocadia: John Brogden:

NSW Liberal leader, John Brogden, has essentially been harping on the last two of those points in the conclusion, with occasional excursions into the second when events allow, for as long as he has been leader. What\'s that, three years now? It\'s not really working; personally I have started to find myself reflexively taking the opposite opinion to anything John Brogden says.

I\'m undecided where I stand on all this talk of churn. I definitely I feel I lean towards what you\'re saying here - even if I do feel it\'s just ever so slightly tinged with a hint of exasperation with the situation - because it is all active action. I\'m not so sure about term limits. They\'re like passive tense; the subject of the clause, electorate and election respectively, aren\'t doing anything, but someone is out of power. What if the electorate really want the man to be PM? Sure, no man is irreplacable, but it strikes me as undemocratic.

I\'m unable to reconcile that last statement with the fact that only a small percentage of the population actually votes for the Prime Minister.
cam: Limits:
John Brogden, has essentially been harping on the last two of those points in the conclusion, with occasional excursions into the second when events allow, for as long as he has been leader.

If I was a cynical asshole politician I would do it like Bush and Howard are. Bush only makes public statements through speeches which gives him and his statements greater dignity than the caught on the side of the street type press conference. Howard also does most of his bashing through his underlings. Bush also uses his talkback radio mouthpiece to bash, while giving himself the appearance of being above it.

I have no idea how to win an election, it just seemed that if incumbency was such an advantage for ten years, the only real way you can win an election before then is to try and give the impression an upcoming election is really a drovers dog election when it isnt.

I\'m not so sure about term limits. They\'re like passive tense; the subject of the clause, electorate and election respectively, aren\'t doing anything, but someone is out of power. What if the electorate really want the man to be PM? Sure, no man is irreplacable, but it strikes me as undemocratic.

We have a constitution in order to make the process or system of government a constant, non-volatile and non-arbitrary in nature. It is a replicable, repeatable system.

The most fallible component in a political process is a human, and in particular a human with the power of the executive. Humanity too often is defined by its negative passions, and having access to large amounts of power only amplifies those negative passions.

I think of term limits as not only protecting the system, but protecting the politician from themselves as well. If government can foist nanay-state solutions on us, then we can enforce a nanny-constitution on them.

It does seem that by about eight years governments do fall into corruption, churning through executives every six years would reduce that level of corruption. I think term limits are important to protect the system from the inevitable fallibility of humanity.

cam
avocadia: The People:

"…government of the people, by the people, for the people"

There wasn\'t anything about "except when we think they\'re being fallible". Other balances don\'t set out to block the will of the people. The people are perfectly capable of electing a House and Senate ruled by the same party. They\'ve done so, both here and there. They can elect a man of the same party to the presidency if they like.

Hell, if we want to deal with the fallibility of the people, its just a short step away to ensuring IQ requirements, age requirements and maybe even property requirements for being elected.

I don\'t see how defeat the will of the people can help. I\'d rather see the opposition parties making a fight for the electorate than rely on term limits on a popular leader.
cam: Power: The problem is fallibility increases exponentially when it is exposed to power. Since a large chunk of government power is in the Executive, that is the position exposed to the greatest temptation to abuse their responsibility to the people and the system.

Human fallibility is how John Stuart Mill derived the need for freedom of speech. His point was no opinion should be silenced, as there is no guarantee that the person doing the silencing with the opposite opinion has the right opinion. I think that principle has been condensed into, \"opinions are like assholes, everyone has one\"!

Since the greatest temptation to fall into tyranny , and the formal power to coerce a despotic reign on the people, the fallibility of the Executive should be treated as a given. Like an entropy of Executive principles toward tyranny the longer they are exposed to the near absolute power of the Executive position.

I think to preserve the system, guard the people\'s liberty and protect the Executive from themselves and their own inevitable fallibility with extended exposure to power - that there should be term limits on the executive.

cam
cam: Milk Principle: It probably could be - facetiously - called the \"Milk Principle\". Where you throw the milk out a couple of days before its use by date as you dont entirely trust it any more.

cam
Scrymarch: Fallibility: It was trust in the people, not a person.  To me term limits are ultimately democratic, as it doesn\'t matter how great any one person is, they\'re always replacable.  In modern Westminster the vote is more for a combination of leader and party together, anyway.

I don\'t mind the rate of about eight years per government, myself.  It\'s entirely sensible to throw out the executive after eight or ten years, though.  That way the party has to seek a new mandate with a new leader.  The leadership bout should also air some dirty laundry and give the opposition a shot at the title.  That\'s what happened at the last Canadian election, where new PM Paul Martin got a stern warning from the electorate and the Liberals now govern in minority.

Oh, and 400 well chosen words is an entirely sensible length for a diary ... otherwise I\'m seriously letting the team down :)
siento: Change of government with recessions: Do most Federal changes of government occur around or slightly after a recession? It seems that thinking back roughly works. 92-93 recession, after Hewson loses 96 change. 82-83 recession, change, mid seventies slowdown, Whitlam goes. Does anyone have figures to go further back?
cam: I havent been able to find: ... any stats of Australian GDP growth by quarter. Austats is difficult to find anything, especially raw data. Maybe some textbook on Australian economic history might have it.

cam

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