Consistency and Foreign Policy

What is a superpower and holder of the moral high ground to do when no matter what they do, they are criticised?

"At some point in time - sooner rather than later - you've got to say 'Enough is enough. Kosovo is independent', and that's the position we've taken," Bush said during a news conference with the prime minister of this impoverished Balkan country.

SMH

It is probably the most justifiable position to take - governance has to acquiescence of the governed or it can't ever work from either perspective.

And yet, at the risk of enduring the contempt of the contemptible for my ability to hold seemingly contradictory thoughts in my head, and fearing to fall prey to the dreaded Motives Fallacy, one can't help but wonder what George W. Bush will say when the Iraqi Kurds and the Taiwanese say that enough is quite enough, thanks for coming.

I suppose it depends on who has to deal with the shitstorm that results when China or Turkey starts lobbing bits of metal large and small.

It's perfectly all right to support the idea of Kosovar independence; it would certainly behoove him to pay some lip service to the dichotomies. On the one hand the US is happy to support independence when the opposition is weak - somehow I can't see Russia starting a war no matter how much they support Serbia. On the other, they tell the Kurds and the Taiwanese to cool it, suck it up, enough isn't quite enough yet. It doesn't seem frivolous to note that Turkey is US ally and China, the enemy of the Taiwanese, are major trading partners, holders of many many US dollars and armed with nukes.

And yet...the US more or less ignored the Balkans during the nineties - when the Croatians were expressing themselves - and were roundly criticised for it. There was even a pop song released calling on the US and the UK to intervene. They functionally ignored various uprisings behind the Iron Curtain and have rightly been criticised for it for years. What is a superpower and holder of the moral high ground - despite the reality - to do?

I suppose there is only so much that can be done. Certain quotes from a Condoleezza Rice profile in the June 2007 Atlantic - which is behind a subscription wall, sorry - expressed the opinion that US efforts at Israeli-Palestinian peace are really only the end-result of months, or years, of effort behind the scenes by Israelis and Palestinians; when Rabin and Arafat shook hands, when Sadat and Begin shook hands, the US State Department took home credit when their contribution was merely the tip of the iceberg. That could be true, could be just disgruntled grumblings - although the quotes were from a retired head of Mossad, so hardly someone never listened to - and either way it hardly seems relevant what they are since all the peace accords have failed. So if the US just stepped up like your Dad agreeing to be a co-signer on your first car loan, or if the US had its fingerprints over every aspect during the entire timeline, it seems clear that the US can't do much when there are intractable issues between both sides and when it is politically - geo- and/or internally - unpalatable to make the sides compromise. Even when compromise does occur, the US can't force acceptance by the internal parties, thus the downfall of the Oslo Accords.

To answer my question, there is nothing they can do. They will be criticised no matter what tack they take on any and all questions of the fate of other nations. One can only ask that the policy each individual (it hardly seems fair to ask Bush to stay consistent with Clinton) administration remain internally consistent. So if the people of Kosovo are entitled to say that enough is enough and that they can go their own way, then it seems fair to ask that the Kurds be informed that there will be Army divisions and flight crews ready to hand down a world of pain to any Turkish military elements that cross the border if or when the Iraqi Kurds declare independence. Or Iraqi military elements, for that matter. But, that will never happen. Instead, for the sake of saving face, the Kurds are more likely than not being told it suck it up.
Permalink, Consistency and Foreign Policy, Jun 2007, avocadia
cam: It is the same problem Australia has with Thailand and Fiji, we man the trumpets to invade Iraq and back military imposition of democracy with force, yet regionally it is obvious we cannot do anything even to make little, weak and tiny Fiji change its ways. We are armed with rhetoric and nothing more. Best if we don't make moral gaps like we did with Iraq, when we have no stick for even our local annoyances.

Like you said, internal consistency is the best policy.

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