Brown and Chertoff: the new American mediocrity.

After 9-11 it was clear that the Bush administration was being run by below average business school students. That is, people who got an MBA with the hopes of ass kissing their way into wealth and power without doing any work or having any discernible talent or skills .

Now, after this hurricane, we're seeing the same thing, but this time we're seeing it quite directly whenever Brown or Chertoff open their mouths. They are overmatched politically, intellectually, and managerially. They are mired in a bureaucratic mess that is designed to push paper rather than produce results, and they are the last kind of people that would have success in changing that. At almost all points last week they had less information on post-hurricane events than the average citizen watching Geraldo Rivera cry on TV while holding little black babies outside the Superdome on Fox News, when it was their job to be in control of one of the worst disasters in American history. Instead they were on TV trying to perform damage control in a universe they weren't familiar with.

Bureaucratic decay, indifference, and arrogance are nothing new, but this mediocre business school approach is. This administration has shown itself to be amateurish and has been exposed as fraudulent whenever it cannot shape the information surrounding an event, and in kind the media and ultimately the spin. That is, they are shown to be the B school PR hacks they are: 100% spin, 0% beef. And they're not even good at spinning.

Intellectually it's not hard to imagine that the press would grill the government on this in a manner I've never seen before. While the media largely tows the party line, preferring not to to scoop up the easy blood in the pool that lays at their feet, they will take it if it's handed to them in a gift wrapped box, as it was here in the form of photos of dead bodies in the streets, video of people suffering at the Superdome and poor folks in Mississippi who looked on at their ruined houses and lives while the remains were looted, and of course, when Chertoff attempted to bend reality when he said "we didn't have a plan for this new kind of catastrophe, the 'ultra catastrophe,'" when government documents available online show that they themselves called it one of the top three likely disaster scenarios facing this nation, exactly what all the billions in funding the DHS received were supposed to mitigate were such a disaster to occur.

BUT MAN, it sure was viscerally shocking to see the TV and newspapers full of pictures of dead bodies, and to watch Chertoff get taken out behind the shed for the woopin' of his life.

I don't know if Bush will be held accountable for any of this. Even with his historically low ratings he hasn't been taken to task for any of his previous blunders. He doesn't even engage in the time honored tradition of "throwing the low level bureaucrat under the bus" to "cleanse" the government after some disgrace to show the public that it's the person and not the institution that is the problem. I expect Brown and Chertoff to keep their jobs, with Bush heartily congratulating them both for a job well done.

I'm not sure how much responsibility has to be shared between NOLA mayor Nagin and LA governor Blanco. First off, even a best case response from local, state, and federal officials was still going to result in a terrible butcher's bill by the time the levees broke early last week (and I think it's going to be far, far worse than 9-11). I give Nagin credit for calling for the evacuation last Sunday. Should Nagin have had a plan to bus everyone out of the city that couldn't afford to escape on their own? Yeah I think so, but logistically I think that entails more than "local" resources. And really the political will for what would have last week been considered a radical act didn't exist. The taxpayers would have been pissed if 100k people were bussed out of town and the hurricane veered off to Florida.

It's going to be a while before we have a clear understanding of why the federal response took so long. A few things are starting to point to political sniping. First, the fact that FEMA was ordering groups ranging from Walmart, the Red Cross, and citizens with relief supplies to turn around upon reaching NO implies that it wasn't just a logistical issue of reaching NO. Then today I came across this article in the WaPo :

The [Bush] administration sought unified control over all local police and state National Guard units reporting to the governor. Louisiana officials rejected the request after talks throughout the night, concerned that such a move would be comparable to a federal declaration of martial law. Some officials in the state suspected a political motive behind the request. "Quite frankly, if they'd been able to pull off taking it away from the locals, they then could have blamed everything on the locals," said the source, who does not have the authority to speak publicly.

Read the rest of it, the spin from both sides looks real bad.

I'm going to ask HR what they think about me doing volunteer work down there. I wish I had the guts to just leave, go down there, and work for the red cross, but I don't.

As humanity leaves a larger and larger stamp on earth, with cities of increasing size, and vulnerability to extreme weather, it will become increasingly important that all aspects of society, from government, to community to private industry are involved in the response and relief. Government has a valid role in this, it is only government who can afford the assets which must be maintained in a state of rapid response. As a result government's immediate responsibility to the deployment of those assets, and the command, control and organisation of other immediate response assets.

Government Responsibilities

The government has two roles in an emergency. They are;

• Rapid Response
• Immediate Relief

Government must take the responsibility for the rapid response, as only it has the resources, and can economically afford to maintain assets in a state of rapid response. A company, organisation or community would not support a service such as the Fire Brigade. Fire fighters spend a lot of time doing situps, washing their trucks, or under-going training. They are maintained in this way so they are in a state of permanent readiness. This is so they can respond immediately. Only government has this kind of money, resources, and patience with an asset that is only called on to perform in extreme circumstances.

With the assets that are in a state of permanent readiness, comes the responsibility to command, co-ordinate and control these assets, as well as other assets such as charities, non-governmental organisations, communities and individuals. Without direction to the application of the rapid response assets will come mayhem, disorder and massive inefficiencies which can lead to loss of human life, property and confidence in public institutions.

The command and control structure that is necessary for a rapid response must also coordinate the immediate relief. This includes public goods such as water, food and emergency healthcare. Command and control must be more than a call to "evacuate" with no infrastructure being provided outside of the evacuated area. The rapid response component must supply that immediate relief infrastructure. This will require the co-ordination of governmental and non-governmental assets.

Theoretical Study: Newcastle

As a scenario, assume Newcastle in NSW is hit, citywide, by an earthquake. Like the San Franciscan earthquake of the 1920s, it leave the much of Newcastle city in rubble, and destabilises the buildings in surrounding suburbs so that they are not safely inhabitable. This scenario requires a levels of immediate and sustained responses that would coordinate assets from all levels of government, private, community and non-profit.

Immediate assets;

• Local Emergency Services (Fire and Ambulance)
• State Emergency Services (SES, Police, Fire and Ambulance)
• Australian Defence Force (Airlift, Medical)
• Local charities and community organisations

Short response assets;

• Bush Fire Brigade
• Local charities and community organisations
• Private Industry

Long Term Response and Relief;

• State Services
• National charities
• National and Statewide community response
• Private industry

Immediate issues would be communications infrastructure. Co-ordinating groups from the military, state emergency, non-governmental organisations and community will require the ability to communicate amongst these groups in order to co-ordinate efforts. In addition, communications infrastructure between a temporary local command and control centre, and a more permanent command and control centre in (most likely) Sydney will be needed.

This would be best provided by the military and private contractors. It would also be dependent upon the damage to the communications infrastructure during the disaster. In communications, many private companies have rapid response groups that can repair infrastructure within a four hour response. However, these private industry groups are task driven. Having them respond without a task is a waste of money, effort, time and resources. it is necessary for a command and control centre to exist, to organise these private industry assets so that they aren't wasted, misused, or left hanging around and waiting.

Medical care, and distribution of supplies such as medical, water and food will require the Australian Defence Force to airlift in supplies. Any evacuation centre will need to be as close to surrounding airfields as possible. Especially ones that can support the aircraft of the Australian Air Force. This will not only enable supplies to be flown in, but also to evacuate patients which require more specialised care in Sydney. To control this rapid influx of air assets, the military will need to either supplement or provide the air controllers for any non-ADF airfields used.

Once the response becomes less time sensitive, the longer term relief and response can start being organized. This will include assets such as charities, and community organisations proving medium-term shelter, or public and private industry rebuilding area's, returning people to their homes, and re-establishing the local economy.

In the earliest moments though, it is imperative that there be a local command and control centre, through which a competent individual directs the response and relief efforts.

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