Financial Sector Contraction

The financial sector of the economy has done pretty well for itself over the last ten years with the packaging of debt in multiple ways that made it more affordable for consumers. That is at an end now. Arnold Kling writes:

For all of the Depression Mania, there is a lot of the U.S. economy that does not have to shrink. Manufacturing is pretty lean to begin with. Housing construction is already much lower than it has been in years. Unlike the 1930's, we have some very big sectors (health care, education, other government employment) that are unlikely to develop massive layoffs. The one sector that definitely needs to contract is the financial sector.

Historically, the financial sector is larger now than it was twenty years ago. Yves Smith notes:

In 1980, financial firms accounted for 8% of S&P; earnings. During the peak of our last stock market cycle, their profits were over 40% of the total. ... There is a remarkable failure to acknowledge a key element of the task before us, that is, that the financial system has to shrink. Its current size is based on an unsustainable level of debt, a big chunk of which will go bust or be renegotiated.

The problem with all the bail-outs and TARP money being thrown around is that ineffective and unproductive banks are being maintained when they should not be. Despite all the government backed guarantees we don't really know who the healthy banks are.

The financial organizations which stayed out of the CDO mess should now be gorging on the carcasses of the failed banks/insurance/etc and buying up their profitable businesses for pennies on the dollar. But this isn't happening because of the government interventions.

Public money is propping up a fat, bloated, unproductive and unsustainable industry that should be somewhere from half to a quarter of the size it is now.

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