Climate Change and Threats To Global Security

Christine Milne made the claim that ; "Climate Change is the greatest threat to global security facing us all." I suspect this is political trolling .

It worked, the ABC was trolled , and I am sure some of the RWDB will froth at the mouth, ranting and raving against "THE LEFT" on that particular line.

However, Milne does not back up that troll with anything of substance relating to why it is a global security threat, and why it is the most important security threat facing the planet.

From her speech, immediately after the global security line;

The world's climate is already changing with permafrost melting, wild storms and hurricanes ravaging our coasts, sea levels rising, droughts and fires intensifying, the ice caps retreating and people having to leave their homes as environmental refugees.

Our children and grandchildren can expect to grow up in a world without polar bears, or pygmy possums unless drastic action is taken now.

We have started to see the first of the environmental refugees , I have to assume that Milne means the refugee issue will become so big, and over-riding that it will become a global security issue? I still don't see how this can be a global security issue, it could be destabilising if on a large enough scale? Maybe she means terrorists will come in with the refugees? Maybe she means the competition for resources will lead to war.

I think she is just trolling. I suspect, like the ABC, IHBT.
Scrymarch: Resource contention, infrastructure, etc: She\'s probably referring to scenarios like the one the Pentagon outlined a few years ago .

Its indicative that she considered a bare assertion sufficient though.  It makes it just another sermon choir instead of a more serious attempt to communicate.
cam: Why not say "facing humankind": or the worlds use of resources etc etc. Security and Terrorism are the two media words of the moment. I suspect she said it to get into the news, and the news bit. That was what the ABC headline had. Unless it is extreme, it doesnt appear to get in. - the coulterisation of the media? Then again they were probably always like that.

cam
cam: This might be a rhetorical attempt: to have the \"national security state\" include climate change in the defence and strategy papers alongside terrorism, piracy and refugees. Since the state is taking responsibility for anything to be in the domain of \"security\", especially in areas the state wasnt allowed to operate in before (such as detention without due process) this could be a way of Milne claiming it is a state responsibility.

cam
avocadia: Trolling?:

Trolling as a term is a tad subjective. You could probably make a pretty good argument for the notion that almost all statements made by politicians or parties that aren\'t actual policy are trolls of some degree. Wedge politics, say the gay marriage ban for example, is kind of trolly. If you believe his book, Mark Latham was the World Champion of Trolling, specifically setting out to see how far he could go.

I would rather set my cynicism aside for a moment though. I personally don\'t believe that the terrorism threat is as dire as it is painted by the Government and the Opposition. Odds are that Christine Milne doesn\'t believe it is either, and it is a no bet that she believes enviromental catastrophe is right around the corner. Can you be a troll if you really do believe in your controversial statements?
cam: That statement was thrown out as bait: for the media. It is an extreme sentence which fits inthe current \"fear\" environment for security. The ABC bit. Do you reckon this \"war on christmas\" business is Fox trolling?

cam
avocadia: Set my watch by it:

\"war on christmas\" business is Fox trolling?

Depends on how pure you are about the definition of trolling. Probably. On the other hand, I was checking a calendar last week, wondering why I hadn;t heard about attacks on christmas yet, it seemed late. Can it be considered a troll when it has become boring predictable? :- )

Cool, Clear

Well, with a Queensland Election coming up, the two (and a half) major parties are competing to see who can propose the most extravagant, inefficient, centrally planned dam in the stupidest places. I was starting to despair of finding anyone pushing a conservative solution that respected property rights and promoted individual water responsibility.  

This morning I found out a party promoting such a policy. The blasted Greens.

For the record, I can't stand half of Bob Brown's antics in the Senate. He's less a gadfly than a class clown. But even on the non-environmental policies they're not spectacularly more communist than the major parties, in what, under our current constitutional settlement, is a naturally tax-and-spend tier of government.

On separating the major parties in the crucial latter preferences, I guess it will have to come down to the stagnation of Labor against the slapstick performance of the Coalition. The Nationals do have at least some decentralising instinct left: they're planning to reinstate local hospital boards (PDF).

As it happens, both the major parties also tuck their policies into PDF documents, that hallmark of bland mass media pap hastily wrapped up for web distribution.

Polls all seem to indicate Beattie will get up again with ease. At least they won't have to repaint the traffic signal box on Edward and Albert St.
cam: I read through their urban water policy the: other day with interest too, I think after they did their media release for it. I thought it interesting that they targetted industrial usage of water for conservation. IIRC in Sydney that accounts for 50% of urban usage. Presumably it is restaurants, hotels etc as well as factories.

Plenty mentions of regulation, no mention of market approaches to water. Ironically, if the Greens did adopt a market approach to water it might make some of the more unsustainable agricultural industries and practices uneconomical.

But yeh, well done Qld Greens on this issue.

cam
cam: IDRC: It was Melbourne I was thinking of, and commercial usage was 28% .

cam
adam: Yeah: I don\'t see what\'s stopping them eg raising the price of water, as I doubt many farmers vote for them anyway. I guess no-one likes to mention raising taxes at election time.
dlatimer: Raise price of water. Drop taxes: Double the price of water - use the extra income to lower taxes. Pensioners already get a discount.

Brisbane Water has sales of $400 million. If the cost of water doubled, then people would use less water and still $350 million extra would be raised.

With that money, the Queensland government could halve payroll taxes (or triple the exemption). Or it could eliminate all land taxes.

Nettle's Citizenship Test Speech

Kerry Nettle made a speech in the Senate on the citizenship test legislation [pdf] which has been tabled. Nettle was a part of the Senate inquiry into the test consequently his a speech is a good summary of the findings - basically there is little need or value in it.

From the speech:

As part of that discussion, there was no additional justification provided by the Department of Immigration and Citizenship when it appeared before the committee. There was reference to the fact that there had been consultation--we were all aware of that--and to the fact that citizenship tests exist in other countries, but simply because it is done in other countries is not a justification for why we should do it.

In fact, the Department of Immigration and Citizenship was not able to provide any information to the Senate committee about ways in which a citizenship test had assisted with the project of improving the cohesiveness of society in any of the countries to which it pointed as examples of countries which have citizenship tests.

And:

The government has not put forward a need or a justification for this change. Indeed, our citizenship laws as a whole are working quite well. The example of overseas countries was the only justification put forward to us and the government could not even provide us with an example of how the test had helped in other countries.

In fact, we heard evidence to the contrary. Then there was the issue of whether or not the government's proposed citizenship test would achieve its objectives. We had an extraordinary number of witnesses appear before the committee to say that, no, it would not achieve the objective of improving cohesiveness and that, rather, it was likely to fuel division within our society and undermine existing English language programs.

The problem is that this legislation is not written in the immigrants or the national interest. It is for the purpose of making nativists, isolationists and nationalists feel better about themselves.

Nettle's Speech on the Crimes Legislation Amendment Bill

Nettle does another excellent speech which summarises the issues surrounding legislation for covert search and seizures by the Australian Federal Police [pdf]. It should be noted that Australian Democrats and Labor had issues with this component of the legislation. Nettle's speech is a reply to Stott Despoja's speech announcing the Democrats oppose that part of the legislation.

Nettle's speech:

I spoke extensively on this matter in my speech on the second reading. This amendment, as Senator Stott Despoja outlined, is about removing the power of the Australian Federal Police to carry out secret searches in people's homes, to confiscate their equipment, to plant listening devices and to access their computer equipment, all without those people ever knowing.

As I explained in my speech, and as Senator Johnston has heard me explain before, our concern is that, if evidence is gathered as a part of that covert search which is subsequently used against an individual in court, they will not be able to contest that evidence because they will not have known about the search having been carried out.

As I explained in my speech, currently the way in which warrants are issued is that you know someone is searching your home or your property and you are able to be there to check that they carry out the search properly. You get receipts for things that they take, and you are also able to have a lawyer present.

What that means is that you are able to check to see that the search is carried out lawfully and properly. If the search is carried out covertly and you never know about it then, if evidence is gathered and brought into a court and used against you, you cannot contest the accuracy of the collection of that evidence or whether that evidence was collected legally, because you were not able to observe or be aware of the search or receive receipts for documents taken because you would not know that the search had been carried out.

As I said in my speech, the government's rationale is that this is about evidence. The position I have put forward is that, given the delay in notification of the search warrant, it is inevitable that it will be used for intelligence.

But, if I take the government's rationale that it is for evidence, you would not be able to contest that evidence in a court if you were not aware of the way in which the search was carried out because you would not have been notified, you would not have had anyone present, you would not have had a lawyer able to observe the search and you would not have been able to access receipts for the process.

The amendment is about ensuring that there is not an abuse of the power to carry out the search. I am not saying that there will be an abuse; that is not what I am saying. I am just saying that this mechanism prevents you from being able to ensure that such a search is carried out properly.

If evidence is gathered and is used against you in a court, you have the right to be able to ensure that that evidence was legally and properly collected. But this takes away your right to be able to ensure that evidence used against you in a court is appropriately collected.

That is the concern that the Greens have in relation to this, and that is why we do not support giving these new sneak and peek powers to the Australian Federal Police.

I dealt with the issue of the time delay in my speech on the second reading. It is an extraordinary length of time.

If it is for evidence-gathering in particular, I cannot see why you need six months extended to 12 months and then 18 months. And, with the approval of the minister, the extensions can continue. That might make sense if it were for intelligence gathering, but it is not.

The government's rationale is that it is for evidence-gathering. Presumably, you are gathering evidence to use in the courts, so why such long delays?

It is interesting to compare it to the USA PATRIOT Act. In that act, at section 213, it says that such warrants are only able to be delayed for 90 days.

What is being proposed here, as the initial period of time, before there is any requirement for notification, is double what is in the USA PATRIOT Act.

Then this legislation allows for further extensions to make it 12 months or 18 months and then, with the approval of the minister, to extend it beyond that. So it is quite extraordinary, even when compared with overseas examples such as the USA PATRIOT Act.

Where you give powers to the Federal Police to carry out a search of somebody's home, there needs to be that accountability.

Our concern is that this model for covert search warrants, the sneak and peek powers for the AFP, does not allow you to have the oversight that you need, particularly if evidence is being gathered that is being used against you in your court case, because you cannot contest it. That is the concern that the Greens have, and that is why we strongly support this amendment.

We are concerned, and I outlined this in my speech in the second reading debate, that the process outlined in the bill suggests that an 18-month delay in notifying anybody can be easily obtained. This goes to the matter of there not being guidelines for Administrative Appeals Tribunal members or judges on making a determination about when it is extraordinary circumstances and should be extended even further. That allows 18 months to become standard.

Obviously there is an additional approval from the minister for a period beyond 18 months, so the length of time indicates to us that it is of concern. As I have said, that is far longer than is allowed in the United States, for example.

The Greens are far more liberal than they get credit for.

2007 National Election

So we have Labor with a comfortable majority in the lower House and we have potentially the Greens with five seats in the upper House almost holding the balance of power. We will see if the Greens are as responsible in the Senate toward good governance as the Australian Democrats were.

The tragedy of this election has been the removal of the Australian Democrats from national politics. They were by far Australia's most liberal and republican party. Their Senators were also the Senate's best performers staying diligently within the liberal democratic tradition of parliament. Something that the major parties often do not bother with.

The polls for Labor had been flat within statistical variance for a long time. The other issue was that the government had been flaying about like a chook with its head cut off. It did not inspire confidence.

It is fashionable to say people are stupid and voters are dumb, but Australians are one of the most sophisticated and highly educated electorates in human history. Australian democracy tends to get it right. The Howard Government was no longer conducting itself in a manner consistent with good governance.

Good governance gets rewarded by Australian voters; bad governance gets punished. The Howard Government deserved to be thrown out embarrassingly. We will see how the Rudd Government conducts itself.

Update

Overseas sites such as Andrew Sullivan, Daily Kos and Talking Points Memo are interpreting the result through the prism of Howard's relationship with Bush. That is a mistake in my opinion.
Guy: A sad day for the Democrats. But overall, a good day for the country, I think, and one that offers some hope again for reform at a federal level. One worries about the state of democracy if we continue to have a complete set of incompetent Oppositions from the conservatives at both state/territory and federal level.

I think you are right about the Bush angle - the relationship between Bush and Howard was not really raised a great deal during the election campaign.
Vee: Just adding that I too am saddened by the passing of the Australian Democrats.

I do not expect that the Australian Greens will be able to behave as responsibly as their forebearers.

I do agree that it is a mistake to view Howard's loss through his association with Bush - as with most elections, it was the domestic agenda that won the public over.
cam: Guy, Yeh the Liberals are going to do it tough for at least six, if not nine years. Hopefully Turnball guides them back to liberalism and makes, if not the next election competitive, then the one after. It is a shame that they can't pull competent people from the state level. They do not have strength at that level currently.

I think it will be temporary. I expect a couple of states will end up Liberal soon and we will probably back to competitive politics again at all levels of government.
avocadia: I voted solely on one issue - AWB - and I hope Downer and the liberals are made to suffer a meticulous and painful inquiry into Downer's gross negligence.

Beyond that, I hope Andrew Bartlett finds a home somewhere that will allow him to continue doing good work and - somewhat selfishly, I admit - blogging. To think that lightweight Kerry Nettle is going to survive and Bartlett is lost to us. Bah!
Felix the Cassowary: I gather the Labor government isn't doing so well in Western Australia, and I think they're the next state up for an election, sometime between mid-2008 and mid-2009. It'll probably last longer than the wall-to-wall Liberal governments we apparently had some time ago, because I wouldn't expect a government in trouble to hold the election early unless they were forced to...
Felix the Cassowary: I address this both to you, Vee, and to Cam:

Why do you try to judge the Greens by the Democrats' standard? The Greens are not the Democrats. They have not claimed to want to "keep the bastards honest". They do not pretend to be a centrist party. Voters chose them (I hope!) because they are a left-wing environmental party. I fully expect to vote and bargain as a left-wing environmental party, and sometimes to block things which are only symbolic and won't do any good (considering what they want), exactly as they do at a state level.

If they acted the same as the Democrats, then they wouldn't be "behav[ing] as responsibly as their forebears" because they and their forebears were elected on completely different platforms! If the Australian people wanted the Democrats, why, then we'd've voted for the Democrats!

In any case, the question is, I think, moot. Unless there's an upset in the Victorian count, then after the Coalition lose their majority in 2007, they'll still have a blocking majority along with Fielding, who'll never side with the Greens. Labor will still be bargaining with the Coalition and not the Greens. And there will be a double dissolution before the end of the term: In 2004, I said that when (not if) Labor won in 2007 there would be a double dissolution, and I've believed it ever since.
cam: Felix, Because good governance trumps party. If the Greens do hold the balance or power, or a marginal balance of power with FF, then they are going to have exactly the same internal debates as the Democrats did when they first entered the Senate and later when the GST passed. Basically, "What is your policy on governance?"

I have no problem with the Greens being an environmental party, they have had my votes in state elections in the past for it, I also have no problem with them being in the 'left' part of the spectrum. I don't really care because good governance is the goal, and it is why we rotate through governments and place minor parties in the balance of power in the upper houses. Howard lost on governance. It is that simple.

I am not sure I trust the Greens to govern well. I am willing to be surprised and I hope they don't go feral. If they do govern well, however, I will expect them to become a powerful third party in the lower house as well, like the Liberal Democrats in Britain. I think they will be able to make that transition because of their political brand which the Democrats were unable to.

It goes both ways. But the Democrats were awesome in that role and I think we owe a lot of the good government that did occur during their tenure as a political party on the national stage to their policies and efforts.

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