Phoenix and Internal American Migration

The WSJ notes that migration around America has stalled with the dropping property markets. The areas hardest hit were the boom property markets; Phoenix being one of them.

The Census data show that the biggest falloffs were in the worst housing markets. In 2007-2008, the Phoenix area gained a net 51,000 domestic migrants, about half as many as two years ago.

And:

The migration slowdown, if it persists, could further delay the economic recovery in depressed housing markets such as Phoenix and Las Vegas. These places generally have a larger amount of unsold homes, and a disproportionate share of the economy is dependent on construction and other real estate-related trades.

Richard Florida also chimes in on the issue. I am part of the internal migration to Phoenix, so I find it all interesting, though I came for the sun and the tech work.

It is interesting to compare the internal migration of the US to Australia. Most of Western Australia's gains were not skilled Australian hands heading out west, instead the state's growth came from direct immigration and births.

Internal Migration and External Immigration in the United States Dropping

Richard Florida notes that the burden of upside down mortgages means that internal migration in the US has dropped and that this is coupled with decreased immigration into the US; making for a very immobile labor market.

IIRC Florida noted in his book that companies travel to where the skills are, not vice versa, I wonder what pressures this will place on the market in skills that companies compete for.

Another issue that I was not aware of is the effectively carteled professions; such as law and union manufacturing jobs that are effectively immobile courtesy of their 'guildlike' structure.

The legal profession is highly carteled due to the bar exam. Other than Louisiana which has a continental legal basis, the remainder of the US states are common law, so passing one bar exam is more than sufficient. Especially as the bar is a made up and imaginary legal system. The bar exam forces lawyers to remain put in a place and raises the cost of intra-state migration.

Since I work in Software my mobility is more determined by living circumstance such as housing and being in upside down mortgages. My mobility is flexible enough, and my profession sufficiently commodified that I can work anywhere on the planet; Australia, America, Europe, India if need be.

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Cam Riley I am an Australian living in the United States as a permanent resident. I am a software developer by trade and mostly work in Java and jump between middleware and front end. I originally worked in the New York area of the United States in telecommunications before moving to Washington DC and working in a mix of telecommunications, energy and ITS. I started my own software company before heading out to Arizona and working with Shutterfly. Since then I have joined a startup in the Phoenix area and am thoroughly enjoying myself.

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