The two US Presidential candidates are established and both have announced their Vice Presidential [VP] co-runners. Where once the VP was whoever came second in the electoral college, now it is an essential political positioning for any candidate. Obama used Joe Biden to plug any holes he had in his foreign policy legitimacy, while McCain chose a left of field candidate which no-one is really sure why.

Portrait of a Candidate from Time

Obama is leading in the polls and electoral college currently but much is up in the air. He is a more natural politician than McCain and a better rhetorician. Additionally his campaign has been more disciplined which in the day and age of gotcha journalism allows for fewer off-message sound bites to escape.

McCain is not the same man that ran in 2000. He lived to his maverick self but was beaten by the electoral sensitivities of Bush and Rove; who are very skilled at getting elected but absolutely woeful at governance.

The McCain campaign of 2008, once becoming the front-runner, is now preaching to the evangelical base and espousing a Jacksonian foreign policy populism.

I personally think there will be another electoral blood-letting in 2008 the same as their was in 2006 with Republicans in the house and senate toppling like dominoes. I expect Obama will win in an electoral-college landslide as well even though the polls don't point to it yet.

The counter-weight is that identity politics still count. Palin is being touted as 'one of us' by evangelical conservatives who weigh in more on character identity than resumes, competency or merit. It may be that identity to McCain's evangelical message, populist foreign policy, republican party identity and maybe even latent or passive racism against a black president will get McCain across the line.

I don't see it though. I expect the Republicans to lose the Senate as well and Obama to walk in as President. The Bush Administration; through bad governance, political abuse and sheer incompetence; has, in my opinion completely broken the republican brand for at least ten years.

We shall see.

Biden: "We will make significant change so, once again, we're the most respected nation in the world. That's what we're going to do."

If I was able to vote in the upcoming US elections then that line alone would have won my vote*. I think the re-establishment of American prestige, morality and power is important and I do not see the Republican Party doing it. Like the electorate, it seems the Europeans are waiting out the Bush Administration as well, so a future government - Obama or McCain - will probably have an easier task on their hands than would seem. Even so, I think it is the most important issue at the moment.

I am kind of biased by my experiences in the US. I have predominantly seen bad governance by Republicans, and seen good governance by Democrats at the national, state and town level. So I don't have much in the way of goodwill to the Republican Party.

I listened to the debates with my partner, and there was one section where my partner said in a surprised voice, "She just called him a liar." I suspect it was the bit about Palin not being a Washington Insider [transcript]. The obvious follow up to that was the "Bridge to Nowhere" which was an obvious piece of political tomfoolery by Palin, but it seems there were no followups. So falsehoods from either debater could not be focused upon.

I recently read The Political Brain which contained a section where Bush called Gore a liar in the prior Presidential debates and Gore didn't strike back at him. So Biden not having a go at Palin for that inference was probably felt on a subliminal emotional level by debate watchers.

I do not know how much effect this debate will have on voters as it was a policy wonk vs a populist - which means both participants end up winning one way or another.

The McCain campaign though has been bewildering, literally bizarre, I have not been able to understand it. Like the the Howard Government's loss in Australia, I think people know when things aren't right, even if they can't put their finger on it, and it ends up being a landslide election. I suspect this US Presidential election will be the same. There has been too much wrong in the last eight years for it to go unnoticed.

* I will naturalize prior to the 2010 elections.